When Will the Cost of Wind and Solar Technology Become Reasonable?

Solar and wind technology will never gain widespread acceptance until the cost comes down 50 - 60%. I have checked several sources and what you are essentially doing is pre-paying for electricity for 10 - 20 years. These companies are building into their sales pitches an 8 - 10% increase per year for the cost of electricity to try and convince people to swallow this as an investment. Even if one accepts these assumptions, the payback is 20+ years. Who in their right mind invests in this for the benefit of the next property owner. It seems as though a better investment would be in high efficiency hvac systems and energy efficient windows. The total cost is a fraction of what one of these 'renewable' systems cost and the benefits are immediate. While buying new systems is a sunk cost at least you will enjoy a more comfortable home and lower utility costs instead of paying in advance for unused electricity generation. Spare me the comparisons to investing in a swimming pool;  pools are a luxury and not a commodity. 


Gail Tverberg (Editor, The Oil Drum)
We have discovered that high oil prices sink the economy. High electricity prices do as well. That is why the idea that electricity prices will increase by 10% per year over the next 10-20 years doesn't make sense. What will happen is that the economy will sink deeper into recession with higher energy prices of any kind, oil, electricity, wind or solar.

It is the absolute level of the price of electricity that counts. In fact, even government subsidies don't make a difference. If the government provides a subsidy, or passes on the cost to other electricity consumer, the effect is the same, because the consumer has less to spend on discretionary items. In the case of the government subsidy, the government ends up having to raise taxes, and this is what leads to less funding for the consumer.

I expect governments to cut back on subsidies, so any comparison with a subsidy included should be looked at without the subsidy.
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