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Nate Silver


Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer ... In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the .... its nam...

Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College? - The New York ...


Feb 26, 2013 ... Nate Silver ... Contrast this Democratic advantage in the Electoral College with the Republican ... The chart orders the states and the District of Columbia based on what share of the vote Mr. Obama received in each one.

Was The Democratic Primary A Close Call Or A ... - FiveThirtyEight


Jul 27, 2016 ... Hillary Clinton will officially become the Democratic nominee for president this week, ... If Clinton had won by that sort of margin in a general election, we'd call it a .... especially closed primaries — while Sanders did better in caucuses. ... received the fifth-most votes of any candidate in a nomination race: ...

Gerrymandering – FiveThirtyEight


Filed under 2016 Election ... Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, left, appears at a get-out ... Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College?

Trump Still Has A Chance — Doesn't He? | FiveThirtyEight


Aug 17, 2016 ... micah: But couldn't Ailes help get Trump to behave? ... I don't think there's really any chance of this happening, but if it did, couldn't the race .... rarely voted in the past or voted Democratic, will vote for Trump on Election Day. ... You can chip away at them a little bit and then hope to get lucky...

Election Update: Clinton's Lead Keeps Shrinking | FiveThirtyEight


Sep 6, 2016 ... That's because its 29 electoral votes are as much as many ... in which case I'll have to get awfully lucky to win the election, probably needing both a ... If that's true, why did Debbie schedule all the Democratic debates when no ...

Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit? - CFAR


Nov 9, 2012 ... Co-authored with Gwern Branwen, who did most of the work. ... Was Silver simply lucky? ... But Silver wasn't the only one to get the electoral college exactly ... odds of going to Democrats while Silver gave them both <50%.

united states - Is it true that Republicans have an unfair ...


Nov 14, 2014 ... Republican Party had an unfair advantage in elections for the House of Representatives. ... in Feb 2103 post "Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College?": ... FiveThirtyEight (not exactly a conservative bastion) says:.

FiveThirtyEight's Electoral College Map: 269 to 269 | The Weekly ...


Jul 26, 2016 ... FiveThirtyEight finds that if the election were held today, rather than in ... We Got Lucky . ... 8 general election showed a projected tally of 269 electoral votes for Hillary ... Once the Democratic National Convention has been completed, one ... as she will presumably get some sort of post-convention bounce.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2008 Generic Congressional Vote


RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2008 Generic Congressional Vote. ... Did Dems Get Lucky in the Electoral College? - Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.

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Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College? | FiveThirtyEight


Feb 26, 2013 ... President Obama won the Electoral College fairly decisively last year despite a margin of just 3.8 percentage points in the national popular vote ...

Democrats Shouldn't Count on an Electoral College ... - FiveThirtyEight


Apr 21, 2014 ... Candidates, campaign strategies and luck matter. ... Democrats might have an Electoral College advantage in 2016, but they ... The Republicans just don't have a map to get them to 270 without winning all a bunch .... a strong "electoral college edge" vis a vis the popular vote (as the GOP did those years).

Has The Hillary Clinton Campaign Been Lucky Or ... - FiveThirtyEight


Aug 23, 2016 ... Today's topic: Has Hillary Clinton's campaign been lucky or good? ... Those voters might be important to the future of the Democratic Party and/or the future ... natesilver: I think she was going to get shit about it either way. .... the greatest politician of our era in Obama and actually got more votes than he...