Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician
and writer ... In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly
predicted the .... its nam...
Feb 26, 2013 ... President Obama won the Electoral College fairly decisively last year despite a
margin of just 3.8 percentage points in the national popular vote ...
Nov 9, 2012 ... Co-authored with Gwern Branwen, who did most of the work. ... Was Silver simply
lucky? ... But Silver wasn't the only one to get the electoral college exactly ... odds
of going to Democrats while Silver gave them both <50%.
Apr 3, 2016 ... In short, there's a reason that FiveThirtyEight.com now says Trump is 5% below
where he needs to be to get the nomination outright. ... Then Bernie Sanders
starting winning more Election Day votes than Clinton, started .... chat with
Secretary Clinton a few times about his priorities and maybe (if he's lucky!) ...
Jul 12, 2016 ... Twenty-four years later, “It's the Electoral College, stupid” is the operational ...
with 20, have been won by every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.
... Shockingly, Obama did only slightly better, winning this voter block 93 ... If
Hillary is lucky, she will face a garden-variety recession; but even th...
Mar 24, 2016 ... Nate Silver. Verified ... Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The .... Here's
what the map might look like in an election held today. Trump's ...
Aug 4, 2008 ... The first step in estimating Electoral College outcomes is to estimate the .... The
markets usually get the sign of an outcome right but tend to be less ... put the
odds as 3-1 against a Democratic takeover of the Senate. ..... 538 does so many
complicated things that it's hard to know what's driving the results.
United States Senator from Massachusetts ... Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight
projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote
Trump. https://t.co/kmjxmjnY1l · No automatic alt text ...
Jul 25, 2016 ... Since Hillary clinched the 2016 Democratic nomination, and particularly since the
DNC ... Step 3: Win enough Electoral College votes to win the national election.
... How does a third party truly have a chance? ... other words, he'll be lucky to get
a single Electoral College vote anywhere in the country.
This is a really interesting question, and one of course we will never fully know
the answer to. ... In a 9/20 blog post at FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.
nyt. ... Removing the electoral college would also remove any modicum of
regional ... state motivated Democratic voters to get out and vote in a way they did
not in ...